Given the connotations for the word in most peoples mind “abundance” may not be quite the right word this year, for the total catch of chinooks in the test fishery for the first two weeks of May was exactly zero, as in no fish whatsoever. Based on this first assessment DFO is estimating the aggregate run-size for both the spring and summer-run timing components will be less than 25,000 fish and as such is planning on the continuation of Zone 1 restrictions for all fisheries that may impact this stock of concern in 2016.

This said it is early days and too soon to assume the run will be very low. The first update in 2014 showed the same result – zero – and yet the return as measured on the spawning grounds showed an aggregate return of about 55,000 spring and summer age-5 chinooks in the Fraser watershed later in the year. The spring fish slightly exceeded their base period doubling goal, a measure developed back when the first Pacific Salmon Treaty with the US was signed in 1985, and the summer-run chinooks were fairly close.

However zero is still zero and not a lot to take assurance from. The 2009 broodyear for the 2014 return was about 50% bigger than the 2011 broodyear for this years return and marine conditions for the past several years out in the open Pacific Ocean where these fish live while at sea have been unfavourable for salmon – record heat because of the so-called “warm blob”, followed closely by a strong El Nino event. The next update will likely be indicative of the real story for this year.

The test fishery at Albion, approximately 50 kilometers upstream from the mouth of the Fraser River, is perhaps the longest running test fishery of any kind in the Pacific region. Commencing in 1980, it has been conducted by the same individual using the same boat ever since. It starts in late April, fishing daily on the high slack tide using an 8-inch mesh or multi-panel (different sized) net on alternate days for chinooks until September 1^st when a slightly smaller mesh net is used to assess the chum return. It represents an invaluable record of catch data, a time-series unmatched anywhere else – perhaps the big surprise is that it has been able to continue through the years when so many other assessment programs have been curtailed or eliminated because of persistent government cutbacks to DFO’s budget, regardless of which party is in power.

Because of this consistent data set not so long ago DFO staff reviewed the estimated returns of age-5 Fraser stream-type chinook and found there was a reasonably strong correlation between the spawning ground counts and the catch several months earlier at Albion and it is from this historical relationship that the final mid-June prediction of run-size, within the Zone 1, 2 or 3 ranges, is made.

Stay tuned ….

Around my home area in Campbell River and, I’m quite certain, elsewhere concern has been expressed that restrictive regulations related to this issue might more widely come into effect also. This has occurred because the corridor does in fact traverse the very bottom end of the Strait of Georgia (SoG). As this issue has started to get coverage in mainstream media it has been reported the area affected by the possible closure of the recreational salmon fishery “includes the Strait of Georgia” without describing what small part would actually be covered in any regulatory action should it occur.

This descriptive imprecision by media that knows little about BC’s recreational fishery can cause enormous social and economic consequences and the reporters bear a real responsibility to understand the story, get their facts right and present it in a way that is accurate. Anything less and such erroneous reporting will cause real harm to coastal communities, in this case around southern BC’s inner coast.

As for the core issue itself there has been no further development to date. The recreational chinook fishery between Sherringham Point west of Sooke over to the Fraser rivermouth is currently being managed under the same regulations as for the past several seasons at this time of year with a mix of both minimum and maximum size limits, the differences depending whether fishing east (SoG) or west (JdF) of Cadboro Point. Anglers in eastern Juan de Fuca Strait can currently keep two chinook per day up to 67 cm. or hatchery chinook only (missing adipose fin) longer than 67 cm. In the Strait of Georgia section of the conservation corridor anglers can keep two chinook a day but only one of which (hatchery or wild) can be longer than 67 cm. Not much of a spread between that and the SoG minimum size of 62 cm!

Ordinarily the next development would stem from results of the Albion test fishery in the lower Fraser River with an announcement in mid June regarding further changes. This year, who knows, with the uncertainty itself having negative consequences for the fishery and its supporting infrastructure.

The maximum size limits are intended to minimize the catch in these areas of Fraser stream-type chinook and are especially effective for the spring-run fish. Because of their relatively long freshwater residency as juveniles and their early run-timing back into freshwater as maturing adults the age 4 class never get very big – twelve pounds is a large one and quite a few weigh less than ten pounds.

Despite the preponderance of historical information indicating that virtually all Fraser stream-type chinook head for the river via Juan de Fuca Strait after making landfall on the southwest Vancouver Island shore, a number of First Nation and environmental groups have recommended to DFO that additional constraints be placed on the recreational fishery for chinook more widely in the Strait of Georgia. These range from a hatchery only (missing adipose fin or Mark Selective Fishery, as with coho) retention or lowering the annual limit to significantly increasing the geographic coverage of the inside chinook conservation corridor (not to be confused with the original corridor, along the west coast of Vancouver Island, relating to a different chinook stock aggregate).

In part this suite of recommendations is a response to the expectation that in 2016 there will be few Fraser sockeye available for First Nations to harvest as food fish and so want to make up the anticipated shortfall with chinook. Both the Salmon Allocation Policy and the Constitution are clear on the hierarchy of allowable harvest and their thinking is that if First Nations require more chinook then other users will have to harvest less.

Twenty some odd years ago, when the Fraser sockeye stock as an aggregate started first started to fall away from the customary four and five yearly cycles of abundance, it would have been hard to imagine the consequences to the recreational fishery of what a low return of these fish might actually mean.

Since then the Fraser River freshwater fishery for sockeye has become a very important fishery whenever abundance permits, which in recent years is less and less frequently. Not so long ago anglers in the ocean were able to keep sockeye all the time but no longer – essentially the marine recreational fishery for Fraser sockeye now doesn’t occur unless there are commercial opportunities also.

And the first harvest to occur is the First Nations food fishing, in both salt and freshwater, with an entitlement of approximately one million sockeye in recent years. With a number of “ifs” that might almost be achieved in 2016 – if the various run-timing groups reach or exceed the 50% probability threshold, and if those weaker run-timing groups are not too intermingled with the stronger runs to allow the desired harvest.

Given the recent year history of uncertain returns of sockeye to the Fraser River that’s a scenario that doesn’t inspire great confidence about outcomes in the summer ahead. Fingers crossed ….

It actually comes in two sub-regional versions, north and south, with the 2016/17 southern draft IFMP running to 376 pages. Some of this are administrative lists and there’s an increasing amount of contextual information, all the same it takes a lot of print to describe the “integrated” (five species, many separate fisheries) part of a Salmon IFMP. For those interested, copies are available via the Consultations section of the DFO Pacific region website.

Because of this complexity the development of the annual plan takes many months and frequently doesn’t receive ministerial sign-off until late June, when some fisheries are already underway. Most of the actual decision-making takes place in-region but those of real consequence or possible controversy, often both, are made in Ottawa. An example would be the allowable exploitation rate on Interior Fraser coho, especially if this involves change from what has preceded the year to come.

For the 2016/17 southern plan the decision of greatest importance will focus on management of a particular chinook stock but in consideration also of the likely run size of Fraser sockeye this summer, First Nation’s food fishing requirements and the socio-economic size of the affected recreational salmon fishery.

The chinook stock in question are the Fraser River stream-type fish, an aggregate of over fifty individual river stocks so named because they spend over a year in the river after emergence as fry and before migrating to sea, much like coho. These fish come in two dominant ages at maturity, 4 and 5 years, with two run-timing seasons, spring (March to early June) and summer (May to late July).

Compared to chinook in general they have an unusual ocean life-history in that with few exceptions most of this stock migrate out to sea and range far off the continental shelf, as with sockeye, pink and chum salmon. Because of this they are only encountered in fisheries as they return home as maturing adults along southwest Vancouver Island, in Juan de Fuca Strait or in the Fraser River itself; it is thought that comparatively few migrate via Johnstone Strait.

Only one individual stock has coded wire tags applied to some of them, the Nicola 4.2’s, making assessment of their presence in marine waters a particular challenge. Taking tissue samples to provide DNA analysis is growing in use and importance but generally is useful only in a seasonal retrospective. In-season run-size assessment for the age 5 fish occurs via a long-term gillnet fishery at Albion in the lower Fraser. DFO has sufficient confidence in the results of this test fishery to make a projection by mid-June of the range of abundance for that year and uses this information in a three-tiered (Zone 1, 2 & 3; low, moderate & abundant) management framework with different fishery regulations for each of the abundance zones.

This chinook stock aggregate has been in varying degrees less abundant for the past 15 years or more and since 2012 all fisheries encountering them have been increasingly constrained. The WCVI commercial troll fishery is not allowed to fish below Estevan Point in the April – June period and the in-river recreational salmon fishery hasn’t opened until July 1^st, months later than not so long ago.

First Nations food fisheries in the Fraser River encountering these fish have also been reduced and the principle marine recreational fishery where these fish are encountered, albeit as a minority of the aggregate seasonal harvest there, in the Sooke to Victoria area and on to the Fraser rivermouth has been managed under a restrictive set of regulations that come into effect March 1^st.

As a result of these seasonal restrictions, compared to pre-2012 the marine recreational fishery is estimated to have reduced its harvest of this stock of concern by about 85% when in Zone 1 and nearly 80% in Zone 2. With these significant savings now demonstrated, to avoid persistent uncertainty about what rules will be in place each year the local recreational fishery has proposed an aggregate Zone1/2 management regime, however DFO has to date declined to enact it.

Although they take a large majority of the harvest of these stream-type chinook, citing their constitutional priority for FSC (Food, Social and Ceremonial) requirements First Nations have declined to further lower their harvest rate on them until all other users have ended theirs. The uneasy status quo of the past few years could probably continue without undue effect on the fish, which by and large are on a slowly increasing trend due to the more conservative management in recent years, however this is dependent on First Nations harvesting Fraser sockeye in their FSC fisheries. Regrettably, because of the forecast of a relatively small sockeye run in 2016 that seems unlikely to occur, thus First Nations want to make up the projected shortfall with chinook salmon. And not just in the Fraser River either, for the implications of restricted First Nations FSC fishing for Fraser sockeye will possibly be felt more widely in marine fisheries around southern BC.

Against that background as part of the 2016 Salmon IFMP development process First Nations, along with the Marine Conservation Caucus representing environmental NGO’s in BC, have recommended that the recreational salmon fishery in the Juan de Fuca to Fraser River estuary corridor be closed entirely for May, June and July and that the in-river fishery not open until August 1. Readers can likely appreciate how troubling that outcome would be were it to be put into effect.

DFO has countered with a proposal to keep fisheries that harvest Fraser stream-type chinook managed in a Zone 1 (low) abundance regime, regardless of the actual abundance calculated from the results of the Albion test fishery. The one exception under this proposal would be to allow First Nations additional FSC chinook fishing opportunities should the test fishing indicate a run-size of greater than 45,000 (the Zone 1 to 2 change point) age-five stream-type chinook into the Fraser River.

So this is where things stand in early May, with none of this any great secret having now recently been covered in regional media. The final decision will almost certainly be made by Hunter Tootoo, minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada and will be a real test of the objectivity and priorities of the new Trudeau government.

At first it was kind of fun to not have to create what I referred to in my own mind as my “weekly homework assignment”. But old habits die hard and I frequently found myself mentally drafting the text on a topic of relevance to the BC recreational fishery, even though it wasn’t going to get written.

As well I met those – many of who said they didn’t even fish! – who were kind enough to express their disappointment that the Ardent Angler column was no longer to be found. Somewhat to my surprise these sort of encounters continued on as the months passed, albeit at a slowly reduced frequency, but even last week I was introduced to a total stranger who was quick to tell me that her weekly reading was the poorer for my columns’ absence.

So thus encouraged and with the modern capability to self-publish, here goes – much the same product I hope, with a different delivery model. I aim to try for a weekly publication schedule but not having an imposed deadline this might vary a little according to season and subject matter at hand.

An assessment of the previous version of this column would suggest that it was frequently focused on issues affecting recreational fisheries management, a category that only seems to be growing in importance as time passes. I wrote about personal fishing trips, with a bit of “how to” and “where to go” mixed in, although I’ve never felt particularly expert in any style of fishing, any knowledge worth passing on being won through hard-won experience. I have one small creek in particular I keep an eye on and so occasionally my experiences in what is called stream stewardship made it into print.

As in the past, the majority of what I expect to be writing about will be saltwater based; in truth I do relatively little freshwater fishing these days, especially with the decline of steelhead in my home area around Campbell River. I know there will be those anglers who would comment that I just don’t fish in the right time at the right place, likely all too true, but there’s no escaping the fact that steelhead fishing around much of central Vancouver Island isn’t what it once was.

The other factor is that I keep my powerboat in the water year-round and it needs to be run once in a while. The winter fishery for chinooks can be good, sometimes excellent, and they are the best tasting fish bar none so the majority of my personal non-summer fishing in the past fifteen years has shifted from river to ocean; it’s just the way it is.

I’m hopeful that a readership of this blog will develop, so as my granny was wont to say, “nothing ventured, nothing gained” – time will tell I guess and thanks for looking in.